The recent death of Donald Rumsfeld and the upcoming twentieth anniversary of 9/11 has prompted me to ask, “What if?” What if the United States had focused on Afghanistan in 2001, and ignored Iraq?

I bring this up because of the tragic events unfolding in Afghanistan. The Taliban have launched an offensive against government forces. The Taliban have been emboldened by the withdrawal of American forces, a decision taken by US President Joe Biden. I do not think that the government in Kabul will survive another year. Biden has sensed that war weariness has set in. The war has gone on long enough and has costs billions of dollars. Yes, the initial campaign dislodged the Taliban from power in 2001, but what else was achieved?

Instead of focusing on Afghanistan, the United States diverted men and resources to Iraq. The regime of Saddam Hussein was targeted as it was claimed that he possessed weapons of mass destruction. The Bush Administration said that Saddam posed a threat to peace as he would give these weapons to terrorists. The Bush people were relentless in their claims that Iraq had WMDs and that action had to be taken. The intelligence was solid. The Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld was the architect of military campaign. The then Secretary of State Colin Powell went before the United Nation Security Council and presented evidence of Iraq’s weapons programmes.

So, while NATO was still fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, the military machine was geared up to invade Iraq. Rumsfeld could not wait to attack Iraq. For a while, the war in Afghanistan became the forgotten war, a side show.

No one questioned if this made sense, to invade one country even while another was still not quite under control. Blind patriotism and the willingness of the media to parrot the White House line was a factor.

I am certain there is a military doctrine that states that you do not embark on one campaign while another is incomplete. In 1941, Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The German Army had conquered most of Western Europe apart from Great Britain. Adolf Hitler had abandoned his plan to invade the British Isles. He probably saw Britain as no longer a threat to the Third Reich. He would later suffer fatally from that huge strategic mistake.

Today, as we watch the Taliban advance, you will tempted to ask what was all that sacrifice for? If the Taliban return to power, they will not be paragons of tolerance or pluralism. Any gains made by Women and girls will be eradicated if the Taliban take over. Women in authority like police officers, teachers or mayors? Forget it. They may say nice things in Doha, but they want to return to the good old days.

On top of that, ISIS have never gone away, neither has Al Qaeda. What’s the betting that they may return to Afghanistan and we will back where we were in pre 9/11?

Granted the West could never stay in Afghanistan forever, but we will now never know what would have happened if the focus was kept there and not diverted to Iraq.